The memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran collapsed in early July, leading to a resumption of hostilities from both sides.  For now, the Strait of Hormuz is again effectively closed to commercial traffic.   The U.S. has reinstituted its blockade of Iranian ships and most other ships are avoiding the Strait and the prowling […]

Inflation has been rising in recent months, moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target.  Consumer confidence is below its average levels.  Gas costs around $4.50 per gallon nationally. Interest rates have been rising.  We are at war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut, cutting off the world from 20% of

Equity markets around the world tumbled after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran on February 28th.  Iran subsequently closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping a huge amount of oil and liquified natural gas production inside the Persian Gulf.  Sea-borne oil production from the Gulf, about 20% of the world’s output, has now been

We enter 2026 as we left 2025, with stocks edging higher in choppy fashion.  While geopolitics has dented investor enthusiasm in January, the companies that have reported their fourth quarter results have put up strong numbers, particularly the banks.  Economic growth was steady at the last reading, with the labor market weakening a bit and

Stocks on Track for a Losing Month For the first time since April, U.S. stocks have faltered.  Following six straight months of gains after the April selloff, the S&P 500 Index has turned negative in November and now sits about 4% below the all-time highs it reached on October 28.  While it is not possible

Investors Remain Upbeat Despite Government Shutdown   Investors have stayed optimistic throughout September and into October as enthusiasm for the AI data center buildout has swamped whatever fears investors may have had about the federal government shutdown, which is now sixteen days old.   Stocks have been hovering near record highs as a string of deal